Where the boys where

Where the Boys Are
By Paul Herbig

During a recent Fall , advertisers and networks were surprised to find one coveted segment, Males 18 to 34, were MIA to the tube, down 7% from the previous year for all TV sets and down a whopping 22% for the major networks. NBC’s flagship youth sitcom lost nearly 30% of its young adult viewers over the previous year; Fox’s “24’ fell an equally remarkable 37% among those youthful viewers. Other productions showed a similar type of falloff among the desired market. The usual suspects were called in and interrogated at length: Nielsen. The networks accused Nielsen of sloppy research and claimed the ancient devices used by Nielsen were defective and not registering the correct numbers. After considerable deliberation and rechecking of the numbers, the jury found Nielsen not guilty and the facts were left as before (to put this in perspective, over the same timeframe, cable showed a high percentage growth and videogames, a twenty percent increase in games played).

Which brings us to: Where did the boys go? With over 500 cable/satellite channels, with channels for every niche and taste, with Pay-for-View, downloadable films, plentiful video rental outlets, with TIVO and recorders that allow them to view now and watch commercial-free later, with PCs that are becoming another entertainment vehicle, the options for entertainment are unlimited. With Ipods, Iphones, YouTube, MySpace, a host of other social networking web sites (Facebook, etc), Downloadable Programs and Movies, and Peer produced media, their options are becoming virtually unlimited. On demand videos, clips, links, you name it exists out there in virtual space. And advertisers are flocking to the net in droves trying to take advantage of the demographics that exist (and to a limited but trendy extent are replacing network TV ads for those on the web—how else would Google become so power and valuable so quickly?) They may be viewing, but not at the hour (8-11 prime time) nor channel (network TV) desired. They watch what they want, when they want it, and how they want it. The networks better accept this and work with it; the youth are not going to change; the networks must if they want to stay around.

Where are the boys going? Far, far away from Network TV. To Cable. To Video Games. To DVD. To whomever will provide them with the content they demand. Network programmers can either take the chance to provide the more controversial, extreme, programming the younger males are demanding (at the risk of offending the older clientele) or lose them to other media. It is not an easy decision. But all signs indicate to the first choice being made—at the risk of losing the older, more traditional clientele.

The networks must worry about the Oldsmobile effect: that misguided effort by GM to go after the youth market at any cost without regards to its potential effect upon its current users with the end result being not only not gaining the youth market but losing the seniors as well (who then left in droves saying in effect if they do not care about me-- “It is not your father’s Oldsmobile”—then whose is it anyway?-- why should I care about them) and hence leading to the demise of one of the great historic brands of the automotive marketplace. Seeing what has been playing on the tube lately and the resulting numbers, makes me believe they too will be just as successful as Oldsmobile was.
Only time will tell whether it was the right decision.

Paul Herbig is managing Partner of Herbig Marketing Associates, (www.herbigandsons.com) a marketing consulting company and former Professor Marketing and Dean, Ketner School of Business for Tri-State University. He can be contacted at mktgandme@aol.com.